www.ONN.tv Analyst Kevin Cook on the Euro and Currency Manager Performance

In the latest edition of “FX Overnight” on Mark2Market, www.ONN.tv currency analyst Kevin Cook highlights the euro’s solid footing against the dollar since the FED’s move to “quantitative easing” launched it above resistance at $1.38. As the demand for U.S. dollars subsides, and “risk appetite” re-appears on the menu of global investors, short-term and long-term views of the EUR/USD exchange rate are surfacing that are dominated by the euro’s perceived superior position in terms of both interest rates and debt. Short-term, the yield differential between the two nation’s interest rates offers a potential for carry trades. Longer-term, investors are beginning to contemplate the size of the U.S. debt balloon and what happens when Treasuries lose their luster.

Cook also updates an intriguing correlation he’s been watching for months between the EUR/USD exchange rate and FX fund manager returns in 2008. As the euro cascaded from its double-top around $1.60, most FX managers were caught on the long side and took their time bailing out. In early December, with the most important currency pair establishing a base above $1.25, Cooked asked, “Will we discover that most currency managers stayed long, or did they finally reverse their positions now only to be caught short in this breakout above $1.30?” Today, he shows the fresh data that answers this question.


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British Pound Outlook Bearish Against Downtrodden US Dollar

GBP/USD ratio: 1.64

Trading Forecast: Bearish

GBPUSD –The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.64 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.35 as 57% of open positions were long.

In detail, long positions are 18.0% higher than yesterday and 25.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 49.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.3% stronger than yesterday and 44.7% below its monthly average.

The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

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Forex Traders Look Past Empty Euro Calendar to US Durable Goods Data

Forex markets were quiet in Asian trading, with the Euro was confined to a narrow, 70-pip range below the 1.3980 level. There is no data scheduled for release in European trading hours, but US Durable Goods Orders data could spark volatility, amplified by illiquid markets ahead of the Christmas holiday. Overnight, the BSI Survey showed that sentiment in Japan’s manufacturing sector hit a record low in the fourth quarter.

Key Overnight Developments

• Japan's Manufacturing Sentiment Hits Record Low in Q4
• Euro Price Action Turns Range-Bound Ahead of Holiday

Critical Levels

The Euro was confined to a narrow, 70-pip range in overnight trading below the 1.3980 level. The British Pound saw a bit of upside, retaking the 1.4750 level but stalling ahead of the 1.48 mark.

Asia Session Highlights

Japan’s BSI Large Manufacturing survey saw sentiment drop to the worst in at least 4 years and the worst on record. Firms have turned pessimistic as foreign demand for Japanese cars and electronics dwindled. Earlier this week, the Trade Balance sank deeper into negative territory as exports plunged a record 26.7% in November. The result echoes the latest Tankan Survey, which showed manufacturing sentiment fell sharply in the fourth quarter to match the lowest reading in since 1999. As we mentioned then, the result will “compound existing weakness in the labor market as firms cut back capacity, weighing on wages, incomes, and consequently pushing consumer spending lower.”

Attempting to revive export growth may be one of the few options still in play for policymakers: monetary easing has little scope with interest rates at just 0.10% and fiscal stimulus could be hit-or-miss given the Japanese consumer’s infamous proclivity to favor saving over spending. This opens the door for the government to step into the currency markets to drive down the Yen, making Japan’s products comparatively cheaper for foreign buyers. Indeed, top Japanese officials have publicly hinted at the possibility of intervention in recent weeks.

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Dollar Edges Higher vs Euro, Pound, Yen

Dollar edges higher vs euro, pound, yen in light holiday-week trading

The dollar traded mixed against major currencies Tuesday in light holiday trading.
The 15-nation euro inched up to $1.3967 in late New York trading, up from $1.3958 late Monday, while the British pound traded down to $1.4735 from $1.4865.
The dollar also rose to 90.68 Japanese yen from 90.07.

A stream of dour economic data on U.S. housing and economic activity left the buck largely unscathed as the end of the year approaches, especially as economies abroad show pain as well.
The Commerce Department reiterated that gross domestic product in the third quarter fell at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. The estimate is unchanged from last month. Economists expect a sharper decline in the current quarter.

Two housing reports on Tuesday, one from the Commerce Department on new home sales and one from the National Association of Realtors on existing home sales, fell by more than expected. New home sales fell 2.9 percent, to the slowest pace in almost 18 years, in November. Home resales fell by 8.6 percent to a yearly rate of 4.49 million in November. Both reports noted double-digit declines in median sales price.

The Dow Jones industrials finished lower for the fifth straight day, falling 100 points to 8,419.49.
In Britain, meanwhile, the government said the economy shrank by 0.6 percent in the third quarter, more than had previously been thought. The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates close to zero in 2009.
Cutting rates can undermine a currency as investors transfer assets elsewhere, looking for higher returns. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to a range of 0.25 to zero earlier this month. Few major economies now have rates above Britain's current 2 percent.
In other currencies, the dollar slipped to 1.2133 Canadian dollars from 1.2185, and fell to 1.0871 Swiss francs from 1.0916.

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Swiss Franc And Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook

Swiss Franc Technical Outlook

The Swiss Franc showed incredible strength against the US Dollar through recent trade, but a sharp USD/CHF reversal off of important Fibonacci support suggests that further short-term corrections are likely.

The 1.0670 mark represents the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2300-0.9640 move, and said level may continue to contain declines through near-term price action. Shorter-term, subsequent resistance can be found at recent spike-highs of 1.1136.

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook

The US dollar has found a base against the Canadian Dollar at the 1.2000 mark, representing the confluence of the USD/CAD’s short-term rising trendline and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0300-1.3020 move.

Said level is likely to contain any short-term declines in the USD/CAD, while intraday spike-highs near 1.2400 represent subsequent support. A break below 1.2000 would negate our short-term bullish bias.

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Japan Unveils Record Budget to Bolster Economy

Japan unveils record budget as government fights recession with big spending

Japan's budget will balloon to a record high next year as the government embarks on a spending spree to battle an ever-deepening recession.
In a draft budget released Saturday, the Finance Ministry suggested an increase of 6.6 percent to 88.5 trillion yen ($990.9 billion) for the next fiscal year -- the biggest ever figure in an initial proposal.
The world's second-largest economy fell into a recession in the third quarter, and the signs since then point toward more misery ahead. The latest outlook by the Cabinet Office projects Japan's economy to shrink this fiscal year and manage only flat growth the following year.
The budget proposal said general spending will rise to 51.7 trillion yen ($578.9 billion) in the year starting April, even though tax revenue is projected to fall 13.9 percent to 46.1 trillion yen ( $516.2 billion).

As a result, Japan will see its primary budget deficit jump to more than 13 trillion yen ($145.6) from 5 trillion yen ($56 billion) this year, and will boost bond issuances by 31.3 percent to cover the revenue shortfall.
The expansion is likely to derail Tokyo's efforts to slim down toward its goal of balancing the budget by 2011. But Prime Minister Taro Aso, facing plummeting popularity ratings, has made it clear that this is no time for fiscal discipline.
On Friday the central bank cut its key interest rate to 0.1 percent, joining the U.S. Federal Reserve in pushing borrowing costs close to zero. And in its gloomiest assessment this year, the Bank of Japan cited the harsh impact of tumbling exports, weakening domestic demand, job losses and growing credit crunch.
"Under these circumstances economic conditions have been deteriorating and are likely to increase in severity for the immediate future," it said in its statement.

The prime minister has responded by introducing a slew of fiscal stimulus measures, including a 27 trillion yen ($302.3 billion) package in October and a 43 trillion yen ($481.5 billion) plan earlier this month.
The Cabinet on Saturday approved a 4.79 trillion yen ($53.6 billion) supplementary budget for this fiscal year through March to fund some of the stimulus steps. Among Aso's measures are expanded credits for small businesses, lower highway tolls and a cash payout to every household to spur spending.

Still, it may not be enough to trigger a turnaround for Aso and his Liberal Democratic Party, which looks increasingly likely to lose its decades-long grip on political power.
The embattled Aso has repeatedly come under fire for verbal gaffes and a lack of leadership through the global economic crisis. His approval rating has plunged to about 20 percent in the three months since taking office.
The draft budget is scheduled for Cabinet approval on Wednesday and will likely be submitted to parliament in January.

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Obama Promises to Bolster Financial Regulation

President-elect Barack Obama promised on Thursday to strengthen financial regulatory agencies and crack down on runaway "greed and scheming" in an effort to restore stability to a reeling U.S. economic system.


Obama named veteran regulator Mary Schapiro as chairwoman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Gary Gensler to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The president-elect said he would charge them with leading a broad overhaul of the financial regulatory system.
"These individuals will help put in place new, common-sense rules of the road that will protect investors, consumers and our entire economy from fraud and manipulation by an irresponsible few," Obama told reporters in Chicago.
"These rules will reward the industriousness and entrepreneurial spirit that's always been the engine of our prosperity, and crack down on the culture of greed and scheming that has led us to this day of reckoning," he said.

Obama also named Georgetown University law professor Daniel Tarullo to fill one of the seven seats on the Federal Reserve Board, which is battling to ease a credit crisis and fend off a deepening recession.
The SEC, created after the 1929 stock market crash to police markets and restore investor confidence, has come under heavy criticism after the Wall Street meltdown and financial scandals exposed lapses in its oversight.
"We have been asleep at the switch. Not just some of the regulatory agencies, but some of the congressional committees that might have been taking a look at this stuff," Obama said.
Also on Thursday, a source familiar with the nomination said Obama had chosen retired Navy Adm. Dennis Blair for director of national intelligence. Blair is a former top U.S. military commander in the Pacific region.

ENTER 21ST CENTURY

Obama, who takes office on January 20, said regulatory reform would be one of his earliest initiatives and he would release a detailed plan for regulatory changes. He said there was a need to potentially consolidate some regulatory agencies.
Under one scenario backed by some lawmakers, the SEC would be merged with the CFTC, which oversees the markets for instruments such as futures contracts and options on oil, coffee, sugar and other commodities.
"We are going to have to greatly strengthen our regulatory apparatus, and update it from what worked for a 20th century financial system, so that it works in a 21st century financial system," Obama told reporters.

"I think the American people right now are feeling frustrated that there's not a lot of adult supervision out there," he said.
Schapiro is now chief executive of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, a self-regulatory body for the securities industry. She was an SEC commissioner for six years, then became chairwoman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 1994 during the Clinton administration.
Schapiro, a lawyer, is a member of the board of directors of Duke Energy Corp and Kraft Foods Inc. If confirmed by the Senate, Schapiro would replace SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, a Republican appointed by President George W. Bush.

Gensler was a partner at Goldman Sachs for a decade and was undersecretary of the Treasury in the Clinton administration.
Tarullo, Obama's choice for the Fed, has been one of the president-elect's top economic policy advisers. The 57-year-old Tarullo was President Bill Clinton's top adviser on international economic policy. He would replace Fed Gov. Randall Kroszner, whose term expired in January, in a move that still leaves two vacancies that Obama can fill.
Obama is hoping to complete most of his Cabinet picks by the end of the week, leaving Chicago on Saturday for a vacation in Hawaii with his family.

He has tapped former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, a partner at Houston-based law firm Vinson and Elkins, to be U.S. trade representative, a source familiar with the decision said.
For labor secretary, Obama has selected California Democratic Rep. Hilda Solis, a Democratic official said on Thursday.
On Friday, Obama is expected to announce the nominations of Solis, Kirk and Blair, plus Illinois Republican Rep. Ray LaHood as transportation secretary.
John Holdren, a past president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, will be the next White House science adviser, the journal Science reported. The article said the appointment could be announced in Obama's weekly radio broadcast on Saturday.

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You probably won’t find many investors claiming that any investment opportunity is easy, even for the Forex capital markets which are ruled by the same rules and regulations that are structuring the other sorts of investments out there, be it equity, futures and stocks trading. You can’t just go in blind and expect to make a huge amount of money without some idea of what you are doing. But the Forex Capital Markets have a slight edge over other forms of investments and if you know your way around the dynamic market, you might be set to make some decent money from investing in it.

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[ForexGen Services]

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• Customer Support
• Trading Support

ForexGen Partnership

ForexGen offers three types of business partnerships.

* [Introducing Broker]
* [White Label]
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ForexGen Introducing Brokers ,White Label and Money Manager holders are recognized as a strategic business partners. The main focus of our service is to satisfy our partner's needs in order to deal with a qualified service and gain a large income sharing plan.

[ForexGen] provides appropriate services satisfying the needs of all business partner's specified situation and requirements.

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD is most likely working higher in a c wave that should end above .70.

Near term, price ideally remains above Friday’s at .6486 although the trend is up as long as price is above .6287. Trading above .6806 (which is expected) would enable bulls to move risk to .6486. For traditional chartists, an inverse head shoulders is evident and price has just broken above the neckline.

[Why ForexGen]


1. Lowest spreads in the market with 0-1 pips in 10 pairs, no commissions, no swaps and instant account Activation.
2. Scandinavian quality with Swiss precision, funds secured and local agents in 18+ countries.
3. ForexGen offers Forex trading in the major currency pairs and crosses.
4. Low capital start, with $250 as a minimum account size.
5. Liquidity and 24/5 availability are the characteristic factors of the Forex market compared with other financial markets.
6. [ForexGen] offers a free trial [Forex demo account] that allows you to test your skills and practice without risking real money.

We consider every client as a special case, a VIP and a partner. A client's profit is our success and a client's loss is a significant call of action for us. Customer care is the heart of our business, we know every client on personal bases as we provide 24/7 customer support. We keep contact with our clients to ensure that we are on the right track. Leading our client relationship to success is our focus. Let's prove to you that you have taken the right step by choosing our partnership.

GE gets $128 Million Navy Contract Add

General Electric awarded $128 million contract modification for Navy engines

The Navy said Monday that it has given General Electric Co. a $128 million contract modification for engine parts and equipment for fighter jets.

The contract includes 32 engines and other parts for variants of the F-18 fighter plane.

Shares of Fairfield, Conn.-based GE fell 16 cents to $16.95 Monday.

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China to Increase Supply of Money to Boost Economy

China to increase supply of money to boost economy amid signs of sharper slowdown

China said it plans to increase the amount of money circulating in its economy next year in a new effort to spur consumer spending and shield the country from a global downturn.
Saturday's announcement by the country's State Council, or Cabinet, comes on the heels of a multibillion-dollar economic stimulus package announced last month that calls for injecting more government money into the economy through spending on construction and other projects.

There are mounting signs that China's economic slowdown is sharper and deeper than expected. Exports fell in November for the first time in seven years and the industry minister warned Friday that worse was to come.
China will increase its money supply by 17 percent next year, the Cabinet said in a statement on its Web site. It said that would be 3 to 4 percentage points above the total growth of economic output and consumer prices.
Increasing the supply of money is aimed at stimulating domestic economic activity and spending by making more credit available to encourage consumers and companies to borrow.
"We must strengthen the role of the financial sector in supporting economic growth by better implementing an active fiscal policy and moderately easing monetary policy," the Cabinet statement said.

The growth rate of China's money supply slipped this year as business activity and bank lending slowed.
The growth in China's broadest measure of money supply shrank from 16 percent in August to 15 percent in November, according to the central bank. That measure, known as M2, includes cash and bank deposits.
The Cabinet also decided to increase by 100 billion yuan ($14.6 billion) the amount of loans for the country's policy banks this year and suspend and reduce the sale of some central bank securities, the statement said.
The central bank has been draining billions of dollars from the economy every month to reduce pressure for prices to rise as revenues from China's booming export industries flood through the economy.

The government said it would stop sales of three-year central bank notes and reduce sales of one-year and three-month bank notes, but gave no other details.
With economic growth forecast at 9 percent and inflation at about 6 percent this year, China's money supply growth has just kept pace with growth in commercial activity. With both growth and inflation forecast to be lower in 2009, the planned expansion in money supply should be much larger than is needed to maintain commercial activity.
China's industry minister Li Yizhong said Friday that the government will spend 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) to subsidize loans to companies to improve technology and cut energy use. Li said Beijing might buy surplus steel to help producers as demand plummets, as well as cut taxes to spur auto and real estate sales.

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