In the latest edition of “FX Overnight” on Mark2Market, www.ONN.tv currency analyst Kevin Cook highlights the euro’s solid footing against the dollar since the FED’s move to “quantitative easing” launched it above resistance at $1.38. As the demand for U.S. dollars subsides, and “risk appetite” re-appears on the menu of global investors, short-term and long-term views of the EUR/USD exchange rate are surfacing that are dominated by the euro’s perceived superior position in terms of both interest rates and debt. Short-term, the yield differential between the two nation’s interest rates offers a potential for carry trades. Longer-term, investors are beginning to contemplate the size of the U.S. debt balloon and what happens when Treasuries lose their luster.
Cook also updates an intriguing correlation he’s been watching for months between the EUR/USD exchange rate and FX fund manager returns in 2008. As the euro cascaded from its double-top around $1.60, most FX managers were caught on the long side and took their time bailing out. In early December, with the most important currency pair establishing a base above $1.25, Cooked asked, “Will we discover that most currency managers stayed long, or did they finally reverse their positions now only to be caught short in this breakout above $1.30?” Today, he shows the fresh data that answers this question.
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