None of the eastern European candidates to join the euro zone had inflation rates low enough to do so in May, according to figures released Tuesday by European Union statistics agency Eurostat.
Poland and other eastern European members of the European Union have said they want to secure rapid entry into the euro zone as their currencies have come under pressure with the withdrawal of foreign capital in response to the global financial crisis.
Labor costs in the 16 countries that use the euro eased in first quarter of 2009 from the record high rate in final quarter of 2008, while wage costs also dropped back over the same period, European statistical agency Eurostat said Tuesday.
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German economic expectations in June rose to 44.8 from 31.1 in May as experts predict a recovery will start by year-end, the Center for European Economic Research said TuesdayThis is the highest reading since May 2006
The Euro has extended its gains after the sharp improvement of German ZEW Economic Expectations Index and, rebound from 1.3745 low has reached an intra-day high at 1.3922.
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In the latest edition of “FX Overnight” on Mark2Market, www.ONN.tv currency analyst Kevin Cook highlights the euro’s solid footing against the dollar since the FED’s move to “quantitative easing” launched it above resistance at $1.38. As the demand for U.S. dollars subsides, and “risk appetite” re-appears on the menu of global investors, short-term and long-term views of the EUR/USD exchange rate are surfacing that are dominated by the euro’s perceived superior position in terms of both interest rates and debt. Short-term, the yield differential between the two nation’s interest rates offers a potential for carry trades. Longer-term, investors are beginning to contemplate the size of the U.S. debt balloon and what happens when Treasuries lose their luster.
Cook also updates an intriguing correlation he’s been watching for months between the EUR/USD exchange rate and FX fund manager returns in 2008. As the euro cascaded from its double-top around $1.60, most FX managers were caught on the long side and took their time bailing out. In early December, with the most important currency pair establishing a base above $1.25, Cooked asked, “Will we discover that most currency managers stayed long, or did they finally reverse their positions now only to be caught short in this breakout above $1.30?” Today, he shows the fresh data that answers this question.
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GBP/USD ratio: 1.64
Trading Forecast: Bearish
GBPUSD –The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.64 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.35 as 57% of open positions were long.
In detail, long positions are 18.0% higher than yesterday and 25.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 49.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.3% stronger than yesterday and 44.7% below its monthly average.
The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.
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Most online forex brokers provide real-time mark-to-market calculations showing your margin balance. Mark-to-market is the calculation that shows your unrealized P&L based on where you could close your open positions in the market at that instant. Depending on your broker’s trading platform, if you’re long, the calculation will typically be based on where you could sell at that moment. If you’re short, the price used will be where you can buy at that moment.
Your margin balance is the sum of your initial margin deposit, your unrealized P&L, and your realized P&L. Realized P&L is what you get when you close out a trade position, or a portion of a trade position. If you close out the full position and go flat, whatever you made or lost leaves the unrealized P&L calculation and goes into your margin balance. If you only close a portion of your open positions, only that part of the trade’s P&L is realized and goes into the margin balance. Your unrealized P&L continues to fluctuate based on the remaining open positions, as does your total margin balance.
If you’ve got a winning position open, your unrealized P&L is positive and your margin balance increases. If the market is moving against your positions, your unrealized P&L is negative and your margin balance is reduced. Forex prices change constantly, so your mark-to-market unrealized P&L and total margin balance also change constantly.
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Forex markets were quiet in Asian trading, with the Euro was confined to a narrow, 70-pip range below the 1.3980 level. There is no data scheduled for release in European trading hours, but US Durable Goods Orders data could spark volatility, amplified by illiquid markets ahead of the Christmas holiday. Overnight, the BSI Survey showed that sentiment in Japan’s manufacturing sector hit a record low in the fourth quarter.
Key Overnight Developments
• Japan's Manufacturing Sentiment Hits Record Low in Q4
• Euro Price Action Turns Range-Bound Ahead of Holiday
Critical Levels 
The Euro was confined to a narrow, 70-pip range in overnight trading below the 1.3980 level. The British Pound saw a bit of upside, retaking the 1.4750 level but stalling ahead of the 1.48 mark.
Asia Session Highlights 
Japan’s BSI Large Manufacturing survey saw sentiment drop to the worst in at least 4 years and the worst on record. Firms have turned pessimistic as foreign demand for Japanese cars and electronics dwindled. Earlier this week, the Trade Balance sank deeper into negative territory as exports plunged a record 26.7% in November. The result echoes the latest Tankan Survey, which showed manufacturing sentiment fell sharply in the fourth quarter to match the lowest reading in since 1999. As we mentioned then, the result will “compound existing weakness in the labor market as firms cut back capacity, weighing on wages, incomes, and consequently pushing consumer spending lower.”
Attempting to revive export growth may be one of the few options still in play for policymakers: monetary easing has little scope with interest rates at just 0.10% and fiscal stimulus could be hit-or-miss given the Japanese consumer’s infamous proclivity to favor saving over spending. This opens the door for the government to step into the currency markets to drive down the Yen, making Japan’s products comparatively cheaper for foreign buyers. Indeed, top Japanese officials have publicly hinted at the possibility of intervention in recent weeks.
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